Game · 2018-19 Final Series
3/10 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+62.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 16,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +30.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -16.1 | +24.0 | -5.3 | -2.6 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 15% | 43% | 19% | 23% | +1.3 | +27.6 | -25.9 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 10% | 69% | 6% | 15% | +0.7 | -2.1 | -3.7 | +5.1 |
| East 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 67% | 5% | 17% | -4.8 | +16.9 | -9.0 | -3.2 |
| East 4 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 85% | 1% | 10% | -1.5 | +11.0 | -2.0 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 3% | +2.9 | -1.8 | +3.1 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yudai Maehara ron 48,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 2% | 94% | 1% | 3% | +101.2 | -107.2 | +3.6 | +2.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 16,000 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -12.8 | -9.6 | -8.5 | +30.9 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,500 from Yudai Maehara | 89% | 1% | 0% | 10% | -2.1 | +2.9 | -1.1 | +0.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 87% | 1% | 0% | 12% | +3.6 | -7.9 | +17.4 | -13.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 95% | 0% | 1% | 3% | -1.1 | -3.3 | +6.5 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yudai Maehara | 95% | 0% | 1% | 4% | -13.4 | -2.0 | -2.9 | +18.3 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,800 from Yudai Maehara | 84% | 0% | 0% | 16% | -30.7 | +0.4 | -0.3 | +30.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 0% | 0% | 75% | -9.3 | -4.2 | +4.2 | +9.2 |