Game · 2018-19 Finals
3/10 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+62.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Nikaido Aki tsumo 16,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +31.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maehara Yudai 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Maehara Yudai Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -16.9 | +23.2 | -4.0 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 13% | 43% | 21% | 23% | -0.2 | +27.0 | -25.9 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 1,100 | 9% | 68% | 6% | 16% | +1.0 | -1.9 | -5.4 | +6.3 |
| East 3 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 67% | 6% | 18% | -2.0 | +16.3 | -9.1 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 84% | 2% | 10% | -2.5 | +12.2 | -1.8 | -7.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 2% | +3.8 | -1.7 | +3.3 | -5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Maehara Yudai ron 48,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 3% | 94% | 1% | 2% | +101.4 | -107.1 | +1.6 | +4.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 16,000 | 97% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -14.6 | -10.2 | -6.8 | +31.6 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,500 from Maehara Yudai | 87% | 1% | 0% | 12% | -0.9 | +2.7 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 88% | 1% | 0% | 12% | +2.8 | -7.8 | +18.0 | -13.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 94% | 0% | 1% | 5% | -0.6 | -3.1 | +6.9 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Maehara Yudai | 95% | 0% | 1% | 4% | -12.8 | -2.2 | -3.4 | +18.4 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 5,800 from Maehara Yudai | 85% | 0% | 0% | 15% | -30.2 | +0.7 | -0.3 | +29.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 0% | 0% | 73% | -10.3 | -4.3 | +4.0 | +10.6 |