Game · 2018-19 Finals
3/10 Game 3
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +36.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -9.1 | +15.2 | -3.7 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 7,800 | 18% | 37% | 22% | 23% | -3.7 | +20.3 | -8.2 | -8.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 54% | 14% | 17% | +33.5 | -17.7 | -8.4 | -7.3 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 37% | 36% | 12% | 15% | +16.5 | -7.1 | -7.6 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Draw | 55% | 25% | 7% | 13% | +4.2 | -7.6 | +0.7 | +2.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,000 from Sonoda Ken | 60% | 20% | 7% | 13% | +2.0 | -1.5 | +4.7 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,600 from Takamiya Mari | 65% | 19% | 8% | 9% | -6.7 | -1.1 | -1.7 | +9.5 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari | 61% | 19% | 8% | 12% | -29.1 | +28.2 | -0.5 | +1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 49% | 9% | 16% | -2.4 | -2.7 | -5.8 | +10.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 22% | 48% | 7% | 23% | -5.2 | -4.7 | +3.9 | +6.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 21% | 42% | 10% | 28% | +32.8 | -3.2 | -20.9 | -8.7 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 57% | 29% | 0% | 14% | -21.4 | +36.6 | -1.4 | -13.8 |