Game · 2018-19 Final Series
3/10 Game 3
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +36.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -9.9 | +15.8 | -4.5 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 7,800 | 18% | 36% | 22% | 24% | -5.4 | +21.1 | -8.1 | -7.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 55% | 15% | 18% | +35.3 | -20.0 | -5.6 | -9.7 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 39% | 34% | 13% | 13% | +17.0 | -5.6 | -9.9 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 26% | 7% | 11% | +2.0 | -6.3 | +1.4 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Ken Sonoda | 59% | 20% | 8% | 13% | +3.9 | -5.5 | +4.7 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 66% | 17% | 8% | 9% | -7.8 | +1.6 | -3.1 | +9.4 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 59% | 19% | 8% | 14% | -27.8 | +28.1 | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 50% | 9% | 16% | -2.6 | -1.7 | -5.8 | +10.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 48% | 7% | 21% | -4.2 | -5.3 | +2.5 | +6.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 21% | 42% | 10% | 27% | +31.2 | -3.3 | -19.4 | -8.4 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 56% | 29% | 0% | 15% | -21.0 | +36.6 | -1.3 | -14.3 |