Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2018-19 Finals

3/10 Game 3

Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +36.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Sonoda Ken● Takamiya Mari● Shiratori Sho● Takizawa Kazunori0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Sonoda● Takamiya● Shiratori● Takizawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Shiratori Sho
1st-place chance
Takizawa Kazunori
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Shiratori Sho
Expected pt change
Takizawa Kazunori
Expected pt change
East 1Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,20024%26%24%26%-9.1+15.2-3.7-2.4
East 2Sonoda Ken tsumo 7,80018%37%22%23%-3.7+20.3-8.2-8.4
East 2, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari tsumo 12,00015%54%14%17%+33.5-17.7-8.4-7.3
East 3Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,00037%36%12%15%+16.5-7.1-7.6-1.8
East 4Draw55%25%7%13%+4.2-7.6+0.7+2.7
East 4, 1 honbaShiratori Sho ron 1,000 from Sonoda Ken60%20%7%13%+2.0-1.5+4.7-5.2
South 1Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,600 from Takamiya Mari65%19%8%9%-6.7-1.1-1.7+9.5
South 2Sonoda Ken ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari61%19%8%12%-29.1+28.2-0.5+1.3
South 2, 1 honbaDraw27%49%9%16%-2.4-2.7-5.8+10.8
South 3, 2 honbaDraw22%48%7%23%-5.2-4.7+3.9+6.1
South 3, 3 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho21%42%10%28%+32.8-3.2-20.9-8.7
South 4Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,00057%29%0%14%-21.4+36.6-1.4-13.8

All 2018-19 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)