Game · 2018-19 Finals
3/23 Game 1
Murakami Jun finished 1st (+99.9pt). The game was decided in East 3: Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000, which moved Murakami Jun's expected points by +32.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 26% | 23% | +5.5 | -6.8 | +3.5 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 29% | 21% | 28% | 23% | -2.9 | 0.0 | -20.7 | +23.6 |
| East 2 | Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 20% | 15% | 40% | -7.0 | -17.3 | +31.2 | -6.8 |
| East 3 | Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 11% | 34% | 34% | -11.6 | -8.5 | +32.7 | -12.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 10% | 6% | 65% | 19% | +21.2 | +0.7 | -1.6 | -20.3 |
| East 4 | Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 20% | 5% | 65% | 10% | +13.0 | -0.3 | -8.2 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 32% | 6% | 55% | 7% | -3.7 | +1.4 | +3.7 | -1.4 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun tsumo 1,500 | 26% | 5% | 62% | 7% | -1.2 | -5.0 | +6.5 | -0.3 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun ron 18,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 21% | 1% | 72% | 6% | -44.4 | +7.3 | +30.7 | +6.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -25.7 | +6.7 | +12.3 | +6.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -3.8 | -3.7 | +14.2 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -5.1 | -8.3 | -5.2 | +18.6 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -1.1 | +5.5 | +0.5 | -4.9 |