Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2018-19 Finals

3/23 Game 1

Murakami Jun finished 1st (+99.9pt). The game was decided in East 3: Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000, which moved Murakami Jun's expected points by +32.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Murakami Jun● Ooi Takaharu● Nikaido Aki● Sasaki Hisato0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Murakami● Ooi● Nikaido● Sasaki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultOoi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Murakami Jun
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Murakami Jun
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
East 1Draw26%26%26%23%+5.5-6.8+3.5-2.1
East 1, 1 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun29%21%28%23%-2.90.0-20.7+23.6
East 2Murakami Jun tsumo 12,00024%20%15%40%-7.0-17.3+31.2-6.8
East 3Murakami Jun tsumo 12,00021%11%34%34%-11.6-8.5+32.7-12.6
East 3, 1 honbaOoi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato10%6%65%19%+21.2+0.7-1.6-20.3
East 4Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun20%5%65%10%+13.0-0.3-8.2-4.5
South 1Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,00032%6%55%7%-3.7+1.4+3.7-1.4
South 2Murakami Jun tsumo 1,50026%5%62%7%-1.2-5.0+6.5-0.3
South 3Murakami Jun ron 18,000 from Ooi Takaharu21%1%72%6%-44.4+7.3+30.7+6.4
South 3, 1 honbaMurakami Jun ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu0%0%99%1%-25.7+6.7+12.3+6.7
South 3, 2 honbaMurakami Jun tsumo 12,0000%0%99%1%-3.8-3.7+14.2-6.8
South 3, 3 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 8,0000%0%100%0%-5.1-8.3-5.2+18.6
South 4Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato0%0%100%0%-1.1+5.5+0.5-4.9

All 2018-19 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)