Game · 2018-19 Finals
3/24 Game 3
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+63.8pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato ron 18,000 from Ooi Takaharu, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +64.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 27% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -8.8 | -1.5 | +9.2 | +1.0 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 23% | 31% | 26% | +22.9 | -10.9 | -5.8 | -6.2 |
| East 3 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 35% | 16% | 27% | 22% | -5.8 | -6.5 | -17.9 | +30.1 |
| East 4 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,500 | 30% | 11% | 14% | 45% | -1.3 | -3.1 | -0.2 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 5,800 from Sasaki Hisato | 27% | 10% | 13% | 50% | -2.2 | +0.7 | -14.0 | +15.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 20% | 8% | 6% | 65% | +28.8 | +0.2 | -4.3 | -24.7 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 52% | 8% | 5% | 36% | -20.1 | -4.9 | +21.7 | +3.3 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Suzuki Taro | 33% | 9% | 14% | 44% | -0.2 | -7.9 | 0.0 | +8.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 28% | 4% | 14% | 55% | -3.8 | -4.0 | +2.7 | +5.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 18,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 24% | 2% | 13% | 61% | -3.8 | +2.6 | +64.1 | -62.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 11% | 1% | 83% | 5% | -2.4 | +20.9 | +3.4 | -21.8 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 5% | 1% | 93% | 2% | +3.2 | -2.1 | +5.5 | -6.5 |