Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2018-19 Final Series

3/30 Game 2

Jun Murakami finished 1st (+61.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000, which moved Jun Murakami's expected points by +48.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Jun Murakami● Sho Shiratori● Hisato Sasaki● Kenji Katsumata0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Jun● Sho● Hisato● Kenji
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSho Shiratori
1st-place chance
Hisato Sasaki
1st-place chance
Jun Murakami
1st-place chance
Kenji Katsumata
1st-place chance
Sho Shiratori
Expected pt change
Hisato Sasaki
Expected pt change
Jun Murakami
Expected pt change
Kenji Katsumata
Expected pt change
East 1Kenji Katsumata ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori25%25%26%24%-9.8-0.6-0.6+11.0
East 2Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami19%24%24%33%+2.4-2.3-1.5+1.4
East 3Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata20%22%24%34%+1.3+9.0-4.3-6.0
East 4Exhaustive draw21%28%20%31%+4.9-3.6-2.3+1.0
East 4, 1 honbaKenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Jun Murakami23%27%20%30%-3.7-2.3-4.9+10.9
East 4, 2 honbaKenji Katsumata tsumo 3,00021%24%17%38%-2.8-3.5-4.1+10.4
East 4, 3 honbaJun Murakami ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki19%20%13%48%-3.1-24.7+28.0-0.2
South 1Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Sho Shiratori16%8%28%48%-8.9-1.4-0.5+10.8
South 2Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,0007%6%25%62%-17.9+57.8-19.3-20.7
South 2, 1 honbaJun Murakami tsumo 12,0004%47%15%35%-8.6-28.1+48.4-11.7
South 3Exhaustive draw2%15%62%21%+2.2-2.9+2.6-1.9
South 3, 1 honbaExhaustive draw1%14%65%20%+4.1-6.8-0.3+3.1
South 3, 2 honbaJun Murakami tsumo 1,5003%11%62%23%-5.2-5.3+17.3-6.8
South 3, 3 honbaExhaustive draw1%3%87%9%+2.7-3.3-0.4+0.9
South 4, 4 honbaKenji Katsumata tsumo 12,0000%0%91%8%-6.4-10.0-19.9+36.2
South 4, 5 honbaJun Murakami ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata0%0%53%47%-3.4+2.6+23.4-22.6

All 2018-19 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)