Game · 2018-19 Final Series
3/30 Game 2
Jun Murakami finished 1st (+61.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000, which moved Jun Murakami's expected points by +48.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,200 from Sho Shiratori | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -9.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | +11.0 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 19% | 24% | 24% | 33% | +2.4 | -2.3 | -1.5 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 22% | 24% | 34% | +1.3 | +9.0 | -4.3 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 28% | 20% | 31% | +4.9 | -3.6 | -2.3 | +1.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Jun Murakami | 23% | 27% | 20% | 30% | -3.7 | -2.3 | -4.9 | +10.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 24% | 17% | 38% | -2.8 | -3.5 | -4.1 | +10.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 19% | 20% | 13% | 48% | -3.1 | -24.7 | +28.0 | -0.2 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Sho Shiratori | 16% | 8% | 28% | 48% | -8.9 | -1.4 | -0.5 | +10.8 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 6% | 25% | 62% | -17.9 | +57.8 | -19.3 | -20.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 47% | 15% | 35% | -8.6 | -28.1 | +48.4 | -11.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 15% | 62% | 21% | +2.2 | -2.9 | +2.6 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 14% | 65% | 20% | +4.1 | -6.8 | -0.3 | +3.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 11% | 62% | 23% | -5.2 | -5.3 | +17.3 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 3% | 87% | 9% | +2.7 | -3.3 | -0.4 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 91% | 8% | -6.4 | -10.0 | -19.9 | +36.2 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 0% | 53% | 47% | -3.4 | +2.6 | +23.4 | -22.6 |