Game · 2018-19 Finals
3/31 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+72.7pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takamiya Mari tsumo 16,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 16,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -22.3 | -9.9 | -11.1 | +43.4 |
| East 2 | Draw | 9% | 16% | 15% | 61% | -1.8 | +5.0 | +0.4 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 10% | 18% | 15% | 57% | -3.5 | +3.7 | +2.8 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 21% | 16% | 55% | +13.3 | -9.7 | -4.4 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 14% | 14% | 15% | 57% | +0.5 | +3.5 | -6.7 | +2.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 13% | 16% | 10% | 61% | -8.0 | +1.3 | +2.5 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 9% | 16% | 10% | 65% | +1.4 | -30.2 | +2.0 | +26.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 3% | 2% | 4% | 91% | +20.1 | -0.7 | -19.8 | +0.5 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,700 | 6% | 1% | 1% | 92% | -3.3 | -2.3 | +0.5 | +5.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | +3.2 | +1.9 | -3.7 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -3.2 | -16.1 | +20.7 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Murakami Jun | 1% | 0% | 2% | 97% | +0.9 | -0.4 | -2.3 | +1.9 |
| South 4 | Murakami Jun ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +6.6 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -3.0 |