Game · 2018-19 Final Series
3/31 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+72.7pt). The game was decided in East 1: Mari Takamiya tsumo 16,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +40.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | -21.9 | -12.1 | -6.4 | +40.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 14% | 16% | 60% | -1.1 | +6.9 | -3.3 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 19% | 14% | 57% | -6.4 | +4.2 | +4.4 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 4,000 | 7% | 20% | 18% | 55% | +15.0 | -9.8 | -4.3 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 14% | 14% | 16% | 56% | +0.7 | +1.3 | -6.1 | +4.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 15% | 12% | 60% | -6.6 | +3.3 | +0.6 | +2.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 11% | 16% | 11% | 62% | +1.3 | -32.3 | +1.5 | +29.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 4% | 2% | 4% | 91% | +18.8 | 0.0 | -17.6 | -1.3 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,700 | 6% | 1% | 2% | 91% | -3.1 | -1.3 | -1.7 | +6.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | +3.2 | +0.6 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -2.9 | -14.2 | +19.3 | -2.2 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 1% | 0% | 2% | 97% | +1.0 | -1.6 | -2.3 | +2.9 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +6.2 | -0.6 | -2.3 | -3.4 |