Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/7 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+101.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 24% | 22% | 26% | +30.5 | -12.5 | -7.0 | -11.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 50% | 16% | 17% | 17% | +5.8 | +0.7 | -6.3 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 56% | 15% | 14% | 15% | -18.8 | -9.1 | -6.6 | +34.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 11% | 12% | 40% | -1.9 | +3.2 | -5.0 | +3.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 13% | 9% | 44% | +32.1 | -17.0 | -5.1 | -10.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 4% | 5% | 25% | -1.7 | +3.6 | -5.9 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 64% | 4% | 3% | 28% | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3.3 | +9.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 3% | 2% | 37% | -7.2 | -3.2 | +3.8 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 3% | 3% | 47% | +2.0 | +4.3 | -2.4 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 51% | 4% | 3% | 43% | +31.8 | +0.3 | +1.3 | -33.4 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000 | 91% | 2% | 1% | 6% | +28.8 | -8.0 | -9.2 | -11.6 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +0.7 | +3.9 | -2.8 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 7 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -8.4 | +15.0 | -4.8 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -5.4 | +9.1 | -0.9 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | +9.2 | -16.5 | +0.8 | +6.5 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +1.4 | +0.9 | -6.4 | +4.1 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +4.0 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.4 |