Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/7 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+77.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 9,600, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 22% | 24% | 27% | -5.0 | +4.2 | -0.6 | +1.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 27% | 23% | 27% | -7.9 | -13.7 | -8.2 | +29.8 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Seiichi Kondo | 15% | 15% | 17% | 53% | +0.1 | -18.7 | +20.2 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 7% | 30% | 50% | -1.9 | +1.7 | +2.4 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 8% | 31% | 47% | -6.0 | -6.1 | +21.3 | -9.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 6% | 50% | 34% | +2.4 | -4.0 | -5.3 | +6.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 11% | 4% | 44% | 41% | +27.9 | +0.5 | +0.6 | -29.1 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 9,600 from Seiichi Kondo | 28% | 5% | 48% | 19% | +26.7 | -17.9 | -6.5 | -2.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 6,400 from Masato Hagiwara | 52% | 1% | 34% | 13% | +1.5 | +12.8 | +4.3 | -18.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 2% | 36% | 5% | -0.3 | +0.7 | -0.8 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 56% | 3% | 36% | 6% | +10.1 | -3.7 | -2.7 | -3.7 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 9,600 | 70% | 0% | 26% | 4% | -21.3 | -3.2 | +29.8 | -5.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 26% | 0% | 72% | 2% | -10.3 | -2.1 | +16.6 | -4.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 0% | 93% | 1% | -2.3 | +3.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,700 | 3% | 0% | 96% | 1% | -1.2 | -7.3 | +6.4 | +2.1 |