Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/7 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+77.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 9,600, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +26.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -4.9 | +4.4 | -1.0 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 27% | 25% | 27% | -6.8 | -14.1 | -7.4 | +28.3 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 7,700 from Kondo Seiichi | 15% | 15% | 19% | 52% | +1.3 | -19.9 | +18.8 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 7% | 28% | 49% | -4.0 | +2.7 | +3.2 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 8% | 32% | 47% | -6.2 | -5.9 | +20.0 | -8.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 9% | 5% | 49% | 37% | +0.3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 9% | 5% | 47% | 39% | +31.7 | -3.7 | -0.1 | -27.8 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 9,600 from Kondo Seiichi | 28% | 5% | 51% | 16% | +24.3 | -15.0 | -6.8 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 6,400 from Hagiwara Masato | 50% | 2% | 35% | 13% | +2.2 | +10.7 | +3.8 | -16.7 |
| South 2 | Draw | 54% | 2% | 38% | 6% | +1.6 | -0.6 | -1.4 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Hagiwara Masato | 57% | 2% | 36% | 6% | +8.9 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -5.8 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 9,600 | 70% | 0% | 27% | 3% | -18.9 | -3.9 | +26.5 | -3.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 7,800 | 30% | 0% | 68% | 2% | -12.2 | -2.1 | +18.4 | -4.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 7% | 0% | 93% | 1% | -1.9 | +3.7 | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,700 | 3% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -1.5 | -7.5 | +6.4 | +2.6 |