Game · 2018-19 Regular Season

1/10 Game 1

Murakami Jun finished 1st (+68.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Murakami Jun tsumo 24,000, which moved Murakami Jun's expected points by +54.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hands	Result	Murakami Jun 1st-place chance	Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance	Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance	Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance	Murakami Jun Expected pt change	Nikaido Aki Expected pt change	Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change	Asakura Koshin Expected pt change
East 1	Murakami Jun tsumo 24,000	26%	26%	22%	26%	+54.9	-19.9	-16.6	-18.4
East 1, 1 honba	Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000	71%	9%	10%	10%	0.0	+4.6	-1.7	-3.0
East 2	Draw	72%	10%	9%	9%	+3.9	-3.4	-4.5	+3.9
East 3, 1 honba	Draw	77%	7%	7%	9%	-1.7	-4.3	+4.6	+1.4
East 3, 2 honba	Asakura Koshin ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki	76%	6%	9%	10%	+1.1	-5.3	-6.0	+10.2
East 4	Asakura Koshin tsumo 12,000	78%	5%	5%	12%	-11.8	-8.9	-8.2	+28.9
East 4, 1 honba	Draw	61%	4%	3%	32%	-3.0	-2.4	+2.0	+3.4
East 4, 2 honba	Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Asakura Koshin	57%	3%	4%	36%	+5.6	+19.8	-0.5	-24.9
South 1	Murakami Jun tsumo 6,000	71%	8%	4%	17%	+12.5	-3.1	-2.9	-6.4
South 1, 1 honba	Ooi Takaharu ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki	84%	5%	4%	8%	+0.3	-3.8	+1.4	+2.0
South 2	Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,000	87%	3%	3%	7%	-1.0	+7.8	-3.6	-3.2
South 2, 1 honba	Draw	86%	5%	2%	7%	-2.2	+4.7	-0.7	-1.7
South 2, 2 honba	Murakami Jun tsumo 1,500	83%	6%	3%	8%	+8.5	-3.6	-4.3	-0.5
South 3	Asakura Koshin ron 6,400 from Ooi Takaharu	94%	0%	1%	4%	-0.3	-2.8	-13.9	+17.0
South 4	Asakura Koshin tsumo 3,000	94%	0%	0%	6%	-2.1	-1.7	-2.6	+6.4
South 4, 1 honba	Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Ooi Takaharu	91%	0%	0%	9%	+3.7	+5.3	-4.9	-4.2