Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/17 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+75.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +50.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Shiratori Sho | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +32.1 | -26.8 | -3.2 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,000 | 48% | 10% | 20% | 22% | -7.7 | -6.7 | 0.0 | +14.3 |
| East 2 | Takamiya Mari ron 5,200 from Shiratori Sho | 40% | 9% | 20% | 31% | +0.7 | -14.2 | +0.1 | +13.4 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 38% | 3% | 18% | 41% | -2.4 | -12.2 | -4.2 | +18.9 |
| East 4 | Draw | 29% | 1% | 11% | 58% | +6.4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 34% | 1% | 9% | 57% | -2.9 | -5.3 | +7.5 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki | 31% | 0% | 12% | 57% | -13.0 | +7.4 | +1.4 | +4.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 7,700 from Setokuma Naoki | 19% | 1% | 13% | 66% | -19.1 | +11.3 | +3.6 | +4.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 2% | 14% | 76% | +26.3 | -11.2 | -9.4 | -5.7 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 0% | 10% | 66% | +32.1 | -1.8 | -12.8 | -17.5 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Shiratori Sho | 74% | 0% | 0% | 25% | -26.3 | -13.2 | -0.3 | +39.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 9% | 0% | 0% | 91% | +50.0 | +0.5 | -12.8 | -37.7 |