Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/17 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+75.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +49.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +30.8 | -28.6 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,000 | 47% | 10% | 21% | 22% | -6.6 | -4.9 | -1.6 | +13.1 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Sho Shiratori | 41% | 7% | 21% | 32% | -0.3 | -14.3 | -0.3 | +15.0 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 38% | 3% | 18% | 42% | -2.6 | -12.0 | -4.2 | +18.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 1% | 11% | 60% | +7.0 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 34% | 1% | 8% | 57% | -1.8 | -5.7 | +8.1 | -0.6 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 32% | 0% | 12% | 56% | -15.1 | +6.4 | +4.2 | +4.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 7,700 from Naoki Setokuma | 18% | 1% | 15% | 67% | -18.5 | +11.7 | +2.3 | +4.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 2% | 15% | 76% | +26.0 | -11.1 | -9.7 | -5.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 0% | 10% | 67% | +34.0 | -1.8 | -13.4 | -18.8 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 76% | 0% | 0% | 24% | -27.1 | -13.1 | -0.1 | +40.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 10% | 0% | 0% | 90% | +49.7 | +0.5 | -12.9 | -37.3 |