Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/18 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+55.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +48.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -1.3 | -2.1 | +0.3 | +3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -3.4 | +5.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 21% | 28% | 25% | 26% | -1.8 | -44.8 | -2.0 | +48.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 4% | 16% | 66% | -1.2 | -1.4 | +5.7 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 4% | 20% | 63% | -4.3 | +2.4 | -6.8 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 9% | 3% | 13% | 75% | -14.8 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +11.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 4% | 3% | 8% | 85% | -2.5 | +11.4 | -0.3 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 4% | 5% | 10% | 81% | -5.3 | -2.0 | +28.2 | -20.9 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 7% | 37% | 54% | +9.7 | -15.4 | +0.2 | +5.5 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 1% | 34% | 63% | -0.1 | -2.7 | -7.1 | +9.8 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 0% | 17% | 83% | -18.9 | +23.0 | -7.4 | +3.2 |