Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/21 Game 1
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+53.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +29.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +1.7 | +2.6 | -5.6 | +1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 25% | 21% | 27% | -7.4 | +15.7 | -5.9 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 37% | 17% | 25% | -2.7 | -3.1 | +6.7 | -0.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 6,000 | 19% | 35% | 22% | 24% | -7.1 | -4.8 | +19.1 | -7.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 16% | 30% | 35% | 19% | -16.1 | -5.0 | +19.7 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 23% | 52% | 18% | -3.5 | -1.3 | +8.4 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 20% | 60% | 14% | +6.7 | -0.3 | -3.1 | -3.3 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 7% | 21% | 59% | 14% | +20.8 | +2.2 | -20.2 | -2.8 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 20% | 26% | 40% | 15% | -1.1 | +15.6 | -15.0 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 6,000 | 18% | 41% | 26% | 15% | -8.0 | +18.9 | -4.9 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 63% | 19% | 10% | -6.7 | -14.6 | +29.9 | -8.7 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 6% | 41% | 46% | 7% | -24.4 | -0.1 | +2.2 | +22.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 37% | 51% | 12% | +0.2 | -12.8 | +22.1 | -9.5 |