Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/25 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+63.7pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +48.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +3.5 | -3.1 | +2.6 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 27% | 22% | 26% | 24% | -6.3 | +11.2 | -0.5 | -4.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 30% | 28% | 20% | +3.2 | +5.6 | -5.5 | -3.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 34% | 24% | 19% | -0.3 | -3.6 | +7.6 | -3.7 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 24% | 31% | 28% | 18% | -0.3 | -2.7 | +10.3 | -7.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 24% | 28% | 35% | 13% | -22.4 | +25.6 | -4.0 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 10% | 50% | 28% | 12% | -14.5 | -16.8 | -17.2 | +48.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 6% | 31% | 17% | 46% | -1.0 | -5.5 | -3.6 | +10.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,700 | 5% | 24% | 14% | 57% | -2.9 | +14.7 | -5.8 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 38% | 10% | 48% | -13.9 | -12.7 | +34.5 | -7.9 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 25% | 34% | 40% | +2.0 | -10.8 | +2.4 | +6.4 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 15% | 35% | 49% | -3.7 | -10.5 | -18.2 | +32.5 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 1% | 3% | 96% | +8.1 | -13.1 | +4.8 | +0.1 |