Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
1/28 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+61.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Saki Kurosawa ron 18,000 from Koshin Asakura, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +59.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yudai Maehara ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -14.8 | +1.6 | +14.6 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 15% | 25% | 35% | 24% | +22.0 | -2.7 | +1.0 | -20.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 22% | 35% | 14% | -5.7 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 24% | 37% | 14% | -4.2 | -2.9 | -15.0 | +22.1 |
| East 4 | Koshin Asakura ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -25.9 | +24.2 | +4.3 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 18,000 from Koshin Asakura | 10% | 41% | 28% | 22% | +59.3 | -56.9 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,400 from Koshin Asakura | 52% | 6% | 23% | 19% | +8.1 | -5.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 4% | 19% | 17% | +6.6 | -2.9 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 67% | 3% | 16% | 14% | +9.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -9.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Yudai Maehara tsumo 2,700 | 78% | 2% | 13% | 7% | -3.5 | -5.4 | +11.2 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 75% | 1% | 18% | 6% | +0.5 | -7.5 | -3.7 | +10.7 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 78% | 0% | 14% | 9% | +2.9 | -1.3 | -11.4 | +9.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 0% | 2% | 11% | +5.9 | +2.3 | -10.6 | +2.5 |