Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
2/4 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+62.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +25.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yudai Maehara ron 1,300 from Koshin Asakura | 22% | 27% | 24% | 26% | -2.2 | -7.4 | +2.2 | +7.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 22% | 24% | 32% | +1.5 | +1.7 | -7.4 | +4.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 7,800 | 22% | 23% | 21% | 35% | -9.9 | +23.5 | -7.0 | -6.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 39% | 16% | 28% | -5.5 | -16.6 | +32.6 | -10.5 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 13% | 25% | 39% | 22% | +24.8 | +0.9 | -23.0 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 28% | 21% | 21% | +18.1 | -4.4 | -4.1 | -9.6 |
| South 1 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 2,700 | 46% | 23% | 17% | 14% | -3.5 | -5.7 | -1.5 | +10.7 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 44% | 20% | 17% | 19% | +25.5 | -2.5 | -22.6 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 1,100 | 75% | 8% | 5% | 12% | +5.4 | +1.1 | -8.8 | +2.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 4% | 0% | 9% | +2.9 | -6.4 | -1.7 | +5.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Yudai Maehara | 88% | 2% | 0% | 10% | +7.9 | +5.3 | -3.3 | -9.9 |