Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
2/7 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+53.0pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +42.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +23.4 | -7.4 | -5.7 | -10.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 45% | 18% | 20% | 16% | -17.1 | -5.1 | +25.1 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 29% | 16% | 39% | 16% | +0.2 | +17.6 | -0.8 | -17.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 25% | 38% | 8% | -6.4 | +2.1 | +2.9 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 23% | 26% | 41% | 10% | +31.7 | -27.2 | -3.5 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 50% | 9% | 33% | 7% | +3.0 | +13.2 | -15.1 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 57% | 14% | 21% | 8% | -15.5 | -15.5 | -17.2 | +48.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 10% | 15% | 35% | -5.6 | -2.9 | -2.6 | +11.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 33% | 9% | 13% | 45% | -1.2 | +14.6 | -5.4 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 34% | 16% | 11% | 39% | -1.5 | +7.5 | -7.4 | +1.5 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 32% | 19% | 10% | 40% | +30.0 | -25.5 | -1.2 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 68% | 2% | 5% | 25% | -3.0 | -10.4 | +18.8 | -5.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 66% | 1% | 11% | 23% | -20.7 | -7.4 | +42.7 | -14.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 34% | 1% | 49% | 16% | +4.2 | -1.8 | -3.8 | +1.5 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 38% | 0% | 48% | 15% | -13.3 | -0.3 | +25.2 | -11.6 |