Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
2/11 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+69.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +36.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -3.5 | +1.1 | -19.1 | +21.6 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 22% | 24% | 14% | 41% | +2.9 | -3.2 | +20.9 | -20.6 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -33.2 | +0.5 | -3.9 | +36.5 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 6% | 18% | 18% | 58% | -20.1 | -1.5 | -1.8 | +23.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 10% | 9% | 79% | +2.2 | -2.0 | -0.3 | +0.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 8% | 8% | 83% | +2.8 | -3.4 | -2.3 | +2.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 6,400 from Mari Takamiya | 1% | 6% | 7% | 85% | -5.6 | +23.0 | -16.4 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 13% | 3% | 84% | +0.4 | -12.2 | +0.1 | +11.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 2% | 98% | -1.9 | +0.9 | +2.6 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 2% | 97% | -1.8 | -2.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 96% | +22.5 | -0.8 | -20.0 | -1.7 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +11.6 | +2.3 | -10.1 | -3.9 |