Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/1 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+62.9pt). The game was decided in South 3: Ken Sonoda ron 18,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +44.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,600 from Yuumi Uotani | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -0.8 | -6.5 | +6.8 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 21% | 28% | 27% | -8.7 | -17.7 | -5.4 | +31.9 |
| East 3 | Yuumi Uotani ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 16% | 9% | 22% | 53% | +0.9 | +13.9 | -3.3 | -11.5 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 17% | 21% | 44% | -7.7 | -5.7 | +30.3 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 13% | 48% | 27% | +57.1 | -16.0 | -22.0 | -19.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 9,600 from Yuumi Uotani | 62% | 6% | 21% | 11% | +20.1 | -18.1 | -3.7 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 6,000 | 83% | 1% | 10% | 6% | +10.0 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 5,800 from Yuumi Uotani | 90% | 1% | 6% | 3% | +7.9 | -9.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 94% | 0% | 4% | 2% | +15.2 | -4.0 | -5.9 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 98% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -11.9 | +12.8 | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | -0.9 | +2.0 | +1.0 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 1,500 from Go Kobayashi | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | -2.5 | +8.1 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 97% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -1.2 | -9.1 | +11.9 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 18,000 from Go Kobayashi | 96% | 0% | 3% | 1% | -41.1 | -0.6 | +44.2 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 40% | 0% | 59% | 1% | -1.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 | +11.0 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,300 from Go Kobayashi | 39% | 0% | 58% | 3% | -16.0 | -0.2 | +19.3 | -3.1 |