Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/4 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+80.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +29.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 23% | 28% | 25% | 24% | -1.4 | +18.5 | +0.8 | -17.9 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 40% | 24% | 15% | -4.5 | -10.7 | -4.5 | +19.7 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 32% | 23% | 27% | -8.6 | -12.2 | +31.5 | -10.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 18,000 | 14% | 21% | 47% | 18% | -11.3 | -17.0 | +41.0 | -12.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 4% | 5% | 86% | 5% | -4.3 | +6.4 | +0.3 | -2.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 2% | 5% | 89% | 4% | +7.3 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 4% | 4% | 89% | 3% | -9.1 | +14.8 | +2.2 | -8.0 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 6% | 93% | 1% | -3.4 | +11.9 | -4.8 | -3.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 11% | 87% | 2% | -5.1 | +27.5 | -15.5 | -6.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 41% | 58% | 1% | -0.7 | +4.3 | -3.5 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 48% | 51% | 1% | +4.7 | +29.9 | -15.4 | -19.1 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 84% | 16% | 0% | +20.9 | +4.0 | -23.2 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 2,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 0% | 96% | 3% | 0% | +3.0 | -0.8 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -3.1 | +3.8 | +4.5 | -5.2 |