Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/4 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+80.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +28.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -3.5 | +23.3 | -0.5 | -19.3 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 41% | 24% | 14% | -2.1 | -14.4 | -5.8 | +22.3 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 29% | 22% | 29% | -11.7 | -10.0 | +34.0 | -12.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 21% | 47% | 19% | -10.8 | -16.3 | +40.6 | -13.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 5% | 87% | 5% | -2.7 | +6.4 | -1.9 | -1.7 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 6% | 87% | 5% | +6.4 | -2.2 | -0.1 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 4% | 4% | 88% | 3% | -7.4 | +14.8 | +2.8 | -10.2 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 6% | 93% | 1% | -4.8 | +11.8 | -4.8 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 11% | 87% | 2% | -5.1 | +27.6 | -16.0 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 41% | 58% | 1% | -1.2 | +6.1 | -4.5 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 50% | 49% | 1% | +5.0 | +28.4 | -14.6 | -18.9 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 85% | 15% | 0% | +21.1 | +4.1 | -22.4 | -2.9 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 96% | 4% | 0% | +2.9 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -3.3 | +3.5 | +4.3 | -4.6 |