Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/8 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +44.5 | -1.2 | -40.4 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 60% | 17% | 5% | 18% | -2.9 | -1.4 | -1.3 | +5.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 5,800 from Sasaki Hisato | 57% | 18% | 5% | 21% | -2.9 | +16.1 | -12.9 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 25% | 3% | 20% | -15.8 | +33.5 | -6.3 | -11.5 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 31% | 56% | 1% | 11% | -7.4 | +0.6 | +6.1 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 24% | 62% | 3% | 12% | +3.2 | +0.4 | -4.2 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 26% | 61% | 1% | 12% | -2.8 | -1.4 | -1.9 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 60% | 1% | 15% | +21.5 | -6.1 | -2.2 | -13.2 |
| South 1 | Draw | 45% | 49% | 1% | 6% | -4.3 | +5.2 | +0.2 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 55% | 1% | 6% | -0.1 | -11.3 | +17.3 | -5.9 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 1,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 46% | 46% | 2% | 6% | -0.1 | +3.3 | -6.1 | +2.9 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Kobayashi Go | 43% | 52% | 0% | 6% | +28.0 | -19.1 | -0.9 | -8.0 |