Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/8 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +42.5 | +1.8 | -42.2 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 19% | 5% | 19% | -1.3 | -5.0 | 0.0 | +6.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Hisato Sasaki | 56% | 16% | 5% | 22% | -2.6 | +19.5 | -13.6 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 28% | 3% | 19% | -14.2 | +28.7 | -5.4 | -9.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 32% | 54% | 2% | 12% | -8.2 | +2.3 | +5.0 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 60% | 2% | 13% | +2.3 | +2.9 | -3.7 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 63% | 1% | 11% | -1.3 | -3.1 | -2.6 | +7.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 60% | 1% | 14% | +21.7 | -7.6 | -1.6 | -12.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 46% | 1% | 6% | -6.1 | +6.5 | +1.0 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 55% | 1% | 5% | +1.3 | -11.1 | +17.0 | -7.2 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 47% | 46% | 3% | 5% | -1.3 | +4.9 | -6.3 | +2.6 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 42% | 55% | 0% | 4% | +28.3 | -20.8 | -1.1 | -6.5 |