Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/16 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+69.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +37.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +3.6 | +0.9 | -3.2 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 30% | 24% | 23% | 24% | +22.0 | -1.9 | -17.0 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 46% | 22% | 13% | 20% | +2.9 | +1.3 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Draw | 48% | 22% | 12% | 18% | +5.5 | -0.4 | -2.2 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 53% | 21% | 11% | 16% | -0.2 | -16.8 | +0.1 | +16.9 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 53% | 12% | 10% | 25% | +19.7 | -0.6 | +0.1 | -19.3 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 8% | 8% | 11% | -10.6 | -10.6 | +32.4 | -11.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 18,000 | 61% | 6% | 23% | 10% | -21.5 | -9.4 | +42.0 | -11.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 30% | 3% | 62% | 5% | -3.7 | -2.7 | +5.7 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,000 | 24% | 2% | 69% | 5% | -3.8 | -1.6 | +7.6 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 19% | 2% | 77% | 3% | -0.5 | +18.5 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 16% | 3% | 79% | 2% | -2.7 | -0.2 | +5.8 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 3% | 86% | 0% | +37.3 | -8.6 | -21.9 | -6.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 2% | 48% | 0% | +25.7 | -4.8 | -17.0 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 83% | 1% | 16% | 0% | -26.3 | 0.0 | +26.1 | +0.3 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 44% | 0% | 55% | 0% | +17.6 | -3.3 | -11.1 | -3.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 71% | 0% | 29% | 0% | +2.1 | +3.1 | -5.4 | +0.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 24,000 | 79% | 0% | 21% | 0% | -8.0 | -26.2 | -9.7 | +43.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 80% | 0% | 19% | 1% | -5.4 | -4.5 | -8.4 | +18.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 78% | 0% | 15% | 6% | -1.6 | +1.7 | -1.8 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 77% | 0% | 15% | 8% | +1.7 | -0.3 | -24.7 | +23.3 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Draw | 82% | 0% | 3% | 15% | +2.2 | -1.1 | -2.8 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 83% | 0% | 2% | 16% | +11.3 | -0.7 | -5.0 | -5.6 |