Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/16 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+69.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +37.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 25% | 25% | +6.5 | -0.4 | -2.4 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 30% | 24% | 23% | 23% | +15.3 | -1.5 | -16.0 | +2.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 21% | 14% | 23% | +6.8 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 20% | 12% | 21% | +7.1 | -0.8 | -3.4 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 54% | 19% | 10% | 18% | -3.2 | -12.0 | +0.5 | +14.7 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 52% | 13% | 11% | 25% | +20.0 | -2.8 | +0.5 | -17.7 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 73% | 7% | 8% | 12% | -9.1 | -10.9 | +32.2 | -12.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000 | 63% | 6% | 23% | 9% | -21.4 | -9.7 | +43.7 | -12.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 2% | 65% | 4% | -3.7 | -2.2 | +2.8 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 25% | 2% | 68% | 4% | -4.4 | -2.0 | +9.3 | -2.9 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 17% | 2% | 77% | 3% | -0.7 | +18.0 | +0.8 | -18.1 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 16% | 2% | 81% | 1% | -3.1 | +1.2 | +5.0 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 3% | 86% | 0% | +37.9 | -9.0 | -22.4 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 1% | 48% | 0% | +26.3 | -5.2 | -17.5 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 84% | 0% | 15% | 0% | -28.0 | +0.8 | +28.0 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 42% | 1% | 58% | 0% | +18.8 | -4.0 | -12.6 | -2.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 71% | 0% | 29% | 0% | +2.6 | +3.3 | -5.8 | -0.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 24,000 | 80% | 0% | 20% | 0% | -8.2 | -26.0 | -9.5 | +43.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 81% | 0% | 18% | 1% | -5.5 | -4.5 | -8.6 | +18.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 79% | 0% | 14% | 7% | -2.2 | +1.7 | -0.8 | +1.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 76% | 0% | 16% | 8% | +1.9 | -0.3 | -25.4 | +23.7 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 0% | 3% | 16% | +2.7 | -1.2 | -3.1 | +1.7 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 83% | 0% | 2% | 16% | +11.1 | -0.7 | -4.5 | -5.9 |