Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/18 Game 1
Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+62.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Kondo Seiichi, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Asakura Koshin | 26% | 27% | 23% | 25% | -4.5 | -21.1 | +23.2 | +2.3 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 14% | 40% | 26% | -6.8 | -16.6 | +29.8 | -6.3 |
| East 3 | Asakura Koshin tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 4% | 69% | 16% | -4.9 | +19.6 | -7.1 | -7.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 11% | 11% | 66% | 12% | +7.2 | -4.1 | +1.6 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 12,000 from Asakura Koshin | 14% | 7% | 69% | 10% | +37.6 | -27.3 | -7.4 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 40% | 2% | 51% | 7% | -33.6 | -2.5 | +33.2 | +2.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 1% | 94% | 3% | -2.2 | +4.8 | -0.7 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 2,000 from Asakura Koshin | 2% | 1% | 94% | 2% | +10.6 | -10.5 | +0.7 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 0% | 96% | 2% | -4.8 | -3.4 | -5.3 | +13.5 |
| South 4 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 95% | 5% | +1.6 | -1.5 | -3.1 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Asakura Koshin tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 0% | 92% | 7% | +1.6 | +17.8 | -1.1 | -18.3 |