Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/18 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+62.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Koshin Asakura | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -2.5 | -19.6 | +22.7 | -0.6 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 13% | 42% | 23% | -7.0 | -13.9 | +28.7 | -7.8 |
| East 3 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 5% | 69% | 15% | -6.3 | +19.0 | -8.2 | -4.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 11% | 64% | 13% | +7.7 | -2.7 | +1.5 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura | 14% | 10% | 67% | 10% | +37.0 | -29.4 | -7.3 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 40% | 2% | 50% | 8% | -32.9 | -2.8 | +34.0 | +1.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 93% | 4% | -2.3 | +4.9 | -0.4 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Koshin Asakura | 2% | 1% | 93% | 3% | +9.9 | -10.5 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 0% | 96% | 2% | -5.0 | -3.4 | -5.0 | +13.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | +1.1 | -1.3 | -2.3 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 0% | 93% | 6% | +2.9 | +17.6 | -1.6 | -18.9 |