Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/19 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+59.9pt). The game was decided in East 4: Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +29.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -3.3 | -0.6 | +0.3 | +3.6 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 22% | 25% | 25% | 28% | -2.7 | -12.3 | -4.2 | +19.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 15% | 22% | 43% | -3.5 | +2.6 | +4.3 | -3.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 18% | 18% | 24% | 40% | +0.7 | +8.7 | -2.8 | -6.5 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 20% | 23% | 22% | 36% | -23.9 | +0.2 | +29.4 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 20% | 47% | 26% | +4.5 | -1.0 | -0.1 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 9% | 21% | 46% | 24% | -6.5 | -3.7 | -0.1 | +10.3 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 6,400 from Seiichi Kondo | 5% | 18% | 45% | 33% | +2.1 | -25.9 | +24.7 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 1% | 78% | 19% | +5.3 | -2.6 | +2.3 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido | 2% | 1% | 81% | 16% | -2.2 | -3.6 | -1.2 | +7.0 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 84% | 15% | +5.3 | -7.1 | +8.0 | -6.2 |