Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/22 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uotani Yuumi ron 1,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | -0.5 | +0.2 | -2.6 | +3.0 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 22% | 29% | -11.1 | +31.8 | -8.3 | -12.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 14% | 50% | 18% | 18% | +1.5 | -1.4 | -7.1 | +7.1 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 16% | 48% | 14% | 22% | -2.1 | +10.8 | -10.5 | +1.8 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 11% | 61% | 7% | 22% | -20.2 | +3.3 | +19.7 | -2.7 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 66% | 12% | 16% | -14.1 | +23.6 | -4.2 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 0% | 91% | 4% | 5% | -1.5 | +3.5 | -1.3 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 93% | 3% | 4% | +17.3 | -12.1 | -3.3 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Uotani Yuumi | 1% | 87% | 5% | 6% | -2.9 | +4.8 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | -2.8 | -1.6 | -5.7 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | -3.1 | -4.6 | -6.9 | +14.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 87% | 0% | 13% | -0.9 | -2.3 | -0.8 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Uotani Yuumi | 0% | 84% | 0% | 16% | +17.2 | +7.1 | -12.2 | -12.1 |