Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
10/22 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +34.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yuumi Uotani ron 1,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -0.1 | -0.6 | -3.4 | +4.1 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 23% | 25% | 28% | -11.3 | +34.1 | -11.4 | -11.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 15% | 51% | 16% | 18% | +1.2 | -3.0 | -7.4 | +9.2 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 15% | 47% | 14% | 24% | -1.5 | +11.4 | -10.1 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 13% | 59% | 7% | 22% | -22.5 | +2.0 | +22.4 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 64% | 13% | 18% | -11.5 | +26.3 | -6.6 | -8.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 92% | 4% | 4% | -1.2 | +2.9 | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 93% | 3% | 4% | +16.5 | -11.6 | -4.5 | -0.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 1% | 89% | 4% | 6% | -2.7 | +4.7 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | -3.3 | -2.3 | -5.8 | +11.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 93% | 0% | 6% | -2.9 | -4.7 | -6.6 | +14.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 87% | 0% | 13% | -1.3 | -1.9 | -0.7 | +3.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Yuumi Uotani | 0% | 84% | 0% | 16% | +17.6 | +7.0 | -12.6 | -12.0 |