Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/1 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +50.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,100 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -6.6 | +6.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 20% | 31% | 24% | 26% | +0.1 | +29.4 | -28.1 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 53% | 9% | 21% | -2.2 | -0.1 | -2.7 | +4.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Yudai Maehara tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 52% | 8% | 25% | -4.5 | -5.4 | -3.1 | +13.0 |
| East 3 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 2,700 | 13% | 47% | 7% | 33% | -1.9 | -1.3 | -7.0 | +10.2 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 10% | 43% | 4% | 42% | -18.4 | +2.2 | +18.9 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 47% | 8% | 39% | +50.1 | -15.5 | -18.0 | -16.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Sho Shiratori | 35% | 33% | 5% | 27% | +11.4 | -2.9 | -8.1 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 45% | 28% | 3% | 25% | -5.7 | -3.3 | +10.3 | -1.3 |
| South 2 | Yudai Maehara ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 42% | 26% | 6% | 26% | -7.8 | -9.3 | -18.7 | +35.8 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 13% | 1% | 62% | +34.1 | -10.3 | -7.5 | -16.4 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 3% | 0% | 24% | +14.6 | -3.7 | -0.4 | -10.5 |