Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/1 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+61.2pt). The game was decided in South 3: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +31.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 24% | 23% | 27% | 26% | +34.7 | -28.2 | -3.4 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 50% | 9% | 20% | 21% | -25.4 | +21.1 | +3.4 | +0.9 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 19% | 26% | 25% | +20.1 | -12.7 | -5.5 | -1.8 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,100 | 47% | 10% | 20% | 22% | +6.1 | 0.0 | -3.8 | -2.3 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 9% | 16% | 19% | -8.6 | +33.0 | -7.5 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 45% | 30% | 14% | 11% | -13.5 | -4.1 | +28.8 | -11.2 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Yudai Maehara | 33% | 27% | 33% | 8% | +18.2 | -7.8 | -3.1 | -7.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 53% | 16% | 26% | 5% | -16.3 | -10.1 | +31.4 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 24% | 8% | 65% | 3% | -1.6 | -10.3 | +10.8 | +1.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Yudai Maehara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 16% | 2% | 80% | 2% | -21.0 | +1.0 | +5.4 | +14.6 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Yudai Maehara | 1% | 0% | 94% | 5% | -9.5 | +28.3 | +3.0 | -21.9 |