Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/1 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+61.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Maehara Yudai 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Maehara Yudai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | +27.8 | -28.7 | +2.2 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 46% | 9% | 22% | 22% | -21.1 | +19.9 | -0.1 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200 | 31% | 20% | 24% | 26% | +17.5 | -12.7 | -4.7 | -0.2 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 1,100 | 46% | 11% | 20% | 23% | +6.6 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 54% | 9% | 16% | 21% | -7.3 | +35.7 | -9.2 | -19.2 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 31% | 12% | 11% | -14.7 | -6.0 | +30.1 | -9.4 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Maehara Yudai | 31% | 27% | 33% | 9% | +16.6 | -5.7 | -1.6 | -9.3 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 48% | 19% | 28% | 5% | -12.3 | -12.2 | +29.5 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 26% | 7% | 64% | 3% | -4.0 | -9.9 | +11.2 | +2.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Maehara Yudai ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 16% | 2% | 79% | 3% | -20.2 | +1.2 | +5.3 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Maehara Yudai | 1% | 0% | 94% | 5% | -9.3 | +28.0 | +3.2 | -21.9 |