Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/2 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -3.7 | +3.3 | +2.5 | -2.1 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 27% | 27% | 25% | +33.4 | -16.0 | -10.8 | -6.6 |
| East 3 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 48% | 14% | 19% | 18% | +0.8 | +23.7 | -23.9 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 30% | 6% | 17% | -0.2 | -0.1 | +6.9 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 49% | 29% | 10% | 13% | +1.2 | -27.6 | -1.7 | +28.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 12% | 7% | 30% | +9.7 | -11.2 | +2.0 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 65% | 4% | 8% | 24% | +5.7 | -2.1 | -10.4 | +6.8 |
| South 4 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 76% | 0% | 0% | 23% | +7.4 | -13.6 | +15.2 | -9.0 |