Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/5 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +71.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 26% | 23% | 24% | 27% | -6.0 | +1.7 | +5.9 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 20% | 26% | 29% | 26% | +9.8 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 28% | 21% | 26% | 25% | -3.7 | -3.5 | +4.0 | +3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 12,000 from Murakami Jun | 26% | 19% | 29% | 26% | -4.6 | -30.9 | -4.6 | +40.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 16% | 5% | 18% | 61% | +0.5 | -1.2 | +2.2 | -1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 3,000 | 15% | 5% | 20% | 60% | +10.9 | -3.4 | -4.2 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 4% | 18% | 56% | +34.0 | -7.4 | -10.5 | -16.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 58% | 2% | 10% | 31% | -3.0 | -1.8 | +5.6 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun ron 5,800 from Kurosawa Saki | 56% | 2% | 12% | 30% | +3.7 | +9.8 | +1.6 | -15.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 5,200 from Murakami Jun | 65% | 3% | 13% | 18% | +1.1 | -13.3 | -2.6 | +14.8 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun ron 1,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 64% | 0% | 10% | 27% | +6.6 | +0.8 | -5.5 | -1.9 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 78% | 0% | 2% | 19% | -34.8 | -3.7 | +71.1 | -32.6 |