Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/5 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +71.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -5.2 | +2.1 | +4.7 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 21% | 26% | 28% | 25% | +8.5 | -5.6 | -3.1 | +0.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 22% | 26% | 25% | -4.5 | -2.4 | +4.4 | +2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Jun Murakami | 24% | 19% | 29% | 28% | -0.8 | -32.5 | -5.8 | +39.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 4% | 18% | 61% | -0.1 | -0.6 | +1.5 | -0.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 3,000 | 16% | 4% | 18% | 62% | +7.3 | -3.4 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 4% | 19% | 57% | +35.3 | -5.8 | -13.5 | -16.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 57% | 2% | 10% | 32% | -2.1 | -3.0 | +6.8 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 56% | 2% | 12% | 30% | +2.7 | +8.6 | +2.0 | -13.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 63% | 3% | 14% | 20% | +1.7 | -12.6 | -3.1 | +14.0 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 64% | 0% | 9% | 28% | +7.8 | +1.3 | -6.1 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 80% | 0% | 1% | 18% | -35.6 | -3.9 | +71.9 | -32.4 |