Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/8 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sayaka Kayamori ron 24,000 from Jun Murakami, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +93.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | +5.0 | -4.1 | -1.7 | +0.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,400 from Mari Takamiya | 29% | 21% | 23% | 26% | +8.1 | +0.8 | -7.4 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 35% | 22% | 20% | 24% | +31.8 | -1.2 | -30.5 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 61% | 16% | 5% | 19% | -6.9 | -1.3 | -2.4 | +10.7 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 53% | 16% | 4% | 26% | +3.4 | -15.0 | +11.2 | +0.3 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 59% | 9% | 7% | 25% | -13.5 | -16.3 | +44.4 | -14.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 5% | 30% | 19% | +4.0 | -1.7 | -7.4 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 5% | 23% | 22% | +0.5 | -3.1 | +8.2 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 51% | 4% | 30% | 16% | -16.2 | -2.8 | +24.3 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 3% | 58% | 12% | -6.8 | +29.3 | -10.5 | -12.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 18,000 | 28% | 13% | 49% | 11% | -22.1 | +60.1 | -23.8 | -14.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Mari Takamiya | 8% | 68% | 18% | 6% | -0.3 | +3.4 | -4.8 | +1.8 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 6% | 76% | 13% | 5% | -3.6 | -1.3 | +7.9 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 5% | 73% | 18% | 4% | -2.4 | +12.8 | -7.4 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 24,000 from Jun Murakami | 1% | 94% | 3% | 2% | -1.6 | -91.3 | -0.5 | +93.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Jun Murakami ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 3% | 1% | 4% | 91% | -0.5 | +43.7 | -46.1 | +2.9 |