Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/8 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kayamori Sayaka ron 24,000 from Murakami Jun, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +92.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 26% | 23% | 25% | +4.8 | -3.3 | -3.7 | +2.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,400 from Takamiya Mari | 29% | 22% | 22% | 27% | +6.7 | -1.7 | -4.9 | 0.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 33% | 21% | 19% | 27% | +30.8 | +0.5 | -30.3 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 59% | 15% | 5% | 20% | -5.2 | -1.3 | -2.6 | +9.1 |
| East 2 | Takamiya Mari ron 5,200 from Murakami Jun | 54% | 15% | 5% | 26% | +3.5 | -15.6 | +10.6 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 58% | 8% | 7% | 27% | -13.4 | -15.3 | +42.4 | -13.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 46% | 6% | 29% | 20% | +4.6 | -1.6 | -5.0 | +2.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 51% | 5% | 23% | 21% | -0.7 | -3.2 | +7.5 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 50% | 4% | 28% | 17% | -16.1 | -3.7 | +25.5 | -5.6 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 3% | 57% | 12% | -8.0 | +29.6 | -11.1 | -10.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 13% | 48% | 13% | -20.5 | +60.3 | -23.6 | -16.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Takamiya Mari | 8% | 68% | 19% | 5% | 0.0 | +3.1 | -4.3 | +1.2 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,500 from Kayamori Sayaka | 6% | 76% | 14% | 5% | -3.8 | -0.6 | +7.1 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 5% | 74% | 17% | 4% | -3.1 | +12.8 | -7.6 | -2.1 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 24,000 from Murakami Jun | 1% | 94% | 2% | 3% | -1.5 | -91.7 | +0.4 | +92.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Murakami Jun ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 3% | 1% | 6% | 90% | -0.3 | +43.8 | -46.5 | +3.0 |