Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/8 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+48.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +34.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -2.9 | +0.7 | -28.4 | +30.6 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 22% | 9% | 49% | -9.8 | +31.8 | -9.8 | -12.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 47% | 6% | 34% | -6.6 | -10.7 | +17.0 | +0.3 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,600 from Suzuki Taro | 12% | 39% | 11% | 38% | -6.5 | +9.0 | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 9% | 48% | 10% | 33% | +0.9 | +5.2 | +20.1 | -26.2 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Suzuki Taro | 10% | 56% | 19% | 15% | -8.9 | +6.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 66% | 15% | 16% | +3.5 | -0.1 | -4.9 | +1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 69% | 12% | 14% | -8.0 | +2.8 | -12.5 | +17.7 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 78% | 3% | 19% | +21.2 | -37.5 | -18.2 | +34.4 |