Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/12 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+53.7pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Koshin Asakura, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +21.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 27% | 23% | 25% | 24% | -6.7 | +3.4 | +0.4 | +2.9 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 21% | 26% | 26% | 27% | -8.6 | +8.3 | +0.5 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 31% | 25% | 27% | -0.3 | +6.2 | -3.1 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 16% | 37% | 23% | 24% | -16.1 | -3.4 | -0.9 | +20.4 |
| East 3 | Koshin Asakura ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 9% | 31% | 21% | 39% | -1.7 | +1.0 | +12.0 | -11.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 9% | 33% | 29% | 30% | +7.9 | -1.7 | -5.0 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Koshin Asakura ron 3,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 11% | 33% | 26% | 30% | -2.7 | +1.8 | +11.5 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 10% | 35% | 35% | 21% | -16.1 | -2.3 | -1.2 | +19.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 29% | 32% | 36% | -2.3 | -2.6 | +11.3 | -6.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 2% | 25% | 44% | 28% | -7.5 | -8.9 | +0.5 | +15.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 15% | 45% | 40% | -1.4 | -5.8 | +2.0 | +5.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 10% | 44% | 46% | +2.2 | -5.3 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Koshin Asakura | 0% | 8% | 46% | 46% | +4.9 | -5.2 | -21.1 | +21.4 |