Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/13 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+69.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +65.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -0.7 | +15.0 | -14.8 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 36% | 16% | 25% | -4.8 | -12.4 | +21.4 | -4.2 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 26% | 30% | 24% | -5.3 | +27.1 | -16.3 | -5.5 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 16% | 50% | 15% | 19% | +24.8 | +0.8 | +3.1 | -28.7 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 31% | 49% | 16% | 5% | +0.5 | +6.8 | -7.8 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 58% | 10% | 4% | -2.9 | -0.2 | +7.2 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 60% | 13% | 4% | -24.2 | -30.0 | +65.2 | -11.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 3% | 11% | 84% | 1% | +0.4 | -2.8 | +5.8 | -3.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 7% | 90% | 1% | -6.5 | -6.6 | +18.0 | -4.9 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -2.1 | +1.5 | -10.6 | +11.2 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +26.9 | -16.5 | -1.0 | -9.4 |