Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/13 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+54.7pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +32.5 | -10.6 | -10.3 | -11.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 17% | 17% | 17% | +1.3 | +1.9 | -5.1 | +1.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 17% | 15% | 19% | -20.4 | -6.5 | +35.4 | -8.6 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 32% | 16% | 38% | 14% | -1.5 | -10.3 | +13.9 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,700 | 27% | 9% | 51% | 13% | +8.2 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -4.1 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 35% | 7% | 47% | 10% | +3.6 | +10.1 | -9.3 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 40% | 12% | 40% | 8% | -31.1 | +27.7 | +4.6 | -1.2 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 15% | 30% | 46% | 9% | -1.9 | -3.3 | +8.0 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 12% | 22% | 58% | 7% | +38.0 | -30.5 | -2.9 | -4.6 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 42% | 2% | 50% | 5% | -14.5 | +1.4 | +23.0 | -9.9 |