Game · 2018-19 Regular Season

11/16 Game 1

Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+58.7pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +32.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance	Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance	Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance	Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance	Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change	Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change	Koshin Asakura Expected pt change	Mari Takamiya Expected pt change
East 1	Exhaustive draw	28%	23%	25%	24%	+2.3	-4.2	+3.4	-1.6
East 1, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	28%	21%	27%	24%	+0.1	-2.3	+7.3	-5.0
East 1, 2 honba	Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Koshin Asakura	28%	20%	31%	21%	+1.8	-3.0	-23.2	+24.4
East 2	Kazunori Takizawa ron 5,200 from Mari Takamiya	29%	17%	17%	38%	+18.3	-1.1	-1.4	-15.7
East 3	Exhaustive draw	46%	14%	16%	24%	-3.8	+4.7	+2.6	-3.5
East 3, 1 honba	Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya	42%	18%	18%	22%	+0.6	+30.6	-4.2	-27.0
East 4	Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura	39%	41%	11%	9%	-5.8	+32.4	-28.1	+1.5
South 1	Exhaustive draw	20%	75%	1%	4%	-3.7	+1.4	+5.0	-2.7
South 2, 1 honba	Koshin Asakura ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya	15%	80%	2%	3%	-0.5	+1.6	+8.1	-9.2
South 3	Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000	10%	86%	2%	2%	-1.6	+2.6	-11.1	+10.1
South 4	Mari Takamiya ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori	5%	93%	0%	2%	+1.2	-5.4	-5.5	+9.6
South 4, 1 honba	Mari Takamiya ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori	8%	88%	0%	4%	+2.6	-7.6	-0.7	+5.7
South 4, 2 honba	Koshin Asakura ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya	15%	78%	0%	7%	-3.5	+10.3	+2.3	-9.0

All 2018-19 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)