Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/16 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+77.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 3 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +39.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -1.1 | +1.0 | -1.0 | +1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 23% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -9.1 | -1.5 | -0.7 | +11.4 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 23% | 23% | 36% | -5.8 | +24.6 | -14.1 | -4.8 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 14% | 43% | 14% | 30% | -19.8 | +22.4 | +2.1 | -4.7 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,500 | 5% | 67% | 11% | 18% | +3.4 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 9,600 | 5% | 67% | 11% | 17% | +24.9 | -8.1 | -9.4 | -7.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 16% | 59% | 9% | 17% | +13.4 | -7.5 | -3.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 49% | 9% | 16% | +39.9 | -15.2 | -11.6 | -13.1 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 65% | 25% | 4% | 7% | +32.9 | -16.4 | -7.9 | -8.6 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 4% | 1% | 1% | +2.2 | -4.3 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| South 1, 6 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 5,200 | 96% | 2% | 1% | 1% | -5.3 | -7.8 | -8.2 | +21.3 |
| South 2 | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 95% | 2% | 0% | 3% | +1.9 | -11.3 | -0.3 | +9.7 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 7,800 | 97% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -3.1 | -6.2 | +12.4 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 3,900 | 96% | 0% | 1% | 3% | -2.2 | -4.9 | +10.6 | -3.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Yuumi Uotani | 95% | 0% | 1% | 3% | +1.7 | +7.9 | -5.2 | -4.4 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Yuumi Uotani | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | +4.7 | +23.0 | -10.4 | -17.3 |