Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/19 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+63.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +43.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -2.9 | +3.9 | +2.5 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 26% | 25% | -0.8 | +4.0 | -6.8 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 29% | 22% | 26% | -20.1 | +52.0 | -14.4 | -17.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000 | 6% | 76% | 8% | 10% | -8.9 | -19.3 | +38.4 | -10.2 |
| East 3 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 1,100 | 6% | 55% | 31% | 8% | -2.7 | +0.9 | -1.3 | +3.1 |
| East 4 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 4% | 56% | 30% | 9% | +1.2 | +1.3 | -10.9 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 5% | 60% | 22% | 13% | +20.3 | +4.1 | +0.4 | -24.8 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,700 | 10% | 67% | 20% | 4% | -6.2 | -0.3 | +8.8 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 6,400 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 67% | 25% | 3% | +18.6 | -19.0 | +3.5 | -3.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 45% | 34% | 4% | -2.5 | -5.4 | +5.7 | +2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,900 | 17% | 37% | 41% | 5% | -9.9 | -10.8 | +23.9 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 16% | 76% | 3% | -6.9 | +42.1 | -29.6 | -5.6 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 81% | 17% | 1% | -1.6 | -33.9 | +43.4 | -7.9 |