Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/20 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +51.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 26% | 25% | -3.5 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 26% | 26% | 26% | +0.3 | -3.1 | -3.1 | +6.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 22% | 23% | 24% | 32% | -16.6 | -17.1 | +51.3 | -17.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 9% | 9% | 68% | 14% | +2.5 | +1.5 | +22.3 | -26.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 5% | 4% | 88% | 3% | -1.7 | -0.9 | -16.3 | +18.9 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 7% | 7% | 77% | 9% | +1.5 | -1.9 | +3.9 | -3.5 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 5% | 83% | 6% | -9.9 | +14.4 | -0.3 | -4.3 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 2% | 8% | 86% | 4% | +6.9 | -2.9 | -0.4 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 4% | 90% | 4% | +6.2 | -1.4 | +0.3 | -5.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 1% | 1% | 94% | 4% | -4.9 | +16.3 | +0.4 | -11.7 |