Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +40.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +40.5 | -15.9 | -12.8 | -11.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 60% | 12% | 14% | 14% | -6.9 | +0.7 | -1.8 | +8.0 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 55% | 13% | 13% | 19% | -0.3 | -7.2 | -1.3 | +8.8 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 55% | 9% | 13% | 24% | +7.1 | -2.3 | -4.4 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 64% | 7% | 8% | 21% | +0.2 | +10.5 | -4.0 | -6.7 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 66% | 11% | 7% | 16% | -4.8 | +14.2 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Sho Shiratori | 62% | 18% | 7% | 13% | +4.9 | -4.3 | -14.4 | +13.8 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 69% | 10% | 4% | 17% | +0.7 | +1.4 | +7.6 | -9.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 72% | 10% | 4% | 14% | +11.2 | +3.6 | -10.5 | -4.3 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 88% | 4% | 0% | 8% | +3.2 | +2.7 | +26.2 | -32.2 |