Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +42.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +42.7 | -13.0 | -16.1 | -13.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki | 60% | 13% | 13% | 14% | -6.0 | -0.8 | -0.7 | +7.5 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 56% | 13% | 13% | 18% | -0.5 | -5.8 | -2.0 | +8.3 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 57% | 10% | 12% | 22% | +5.9 | -3.1 | -3.8 | +0.9 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 64% | 8% | 7% | 22% | -1.8 | +10.3 | -1.4 | -7.1 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 64% | 11% | 9% | 16% | -0.9 | +15.3 | -6.1 | -8.3 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Shiratori Sho | 64% | 18% | 6% | 12% | +2.7 | -6.6 | -12.9 | +16.7 |
| South 3 | Shiratori Sho ron 2,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 69% | 9% | 3% | 19% | +0.4 | +2.2 | +8.4 | -10.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho | 72% | 10% | 5% | 14% | +11.9 | +4.4 | -10.8 | -5.4 |
| South 4 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 8,000 | 88% | 4% | 0% | 7% | +2.8 | +2.5 | +25.6 | -31.0 |