Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/29 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+74.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 28% | -12.9 | +21.5 | -3.3 | -5.3 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 18,000 | 15% | 40% | 22% | 23% | -13.3 | +42.2 | -13.6 | -15.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 80% | 8% | 8% | -2.9 | +18.3 | -7.3 | -8.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 2% | 92% | 3% | 3% | +0.5 | +6.4 | -7.3 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 95% | 2% | 2% | +1.6 | -0.1 | -4.0 | +2.6 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 96% | 1% | 2% | -9.3 | -5.3 | +23.5 | -9.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 93% | 4% | 2% | +21.0 | -0.6 | -13.6 | -6.8 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 95% | 2% | 1% | -1.0 | +0.5 | +6.0 | -5.6 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 2% | 97% | 1% | 0% | +7.8 | -4.9 | -0.8 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Takizawa Kazunori | 3% | 94% | 2% | 1% | -7.6 | +1.2 | +6.9 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Draw | 0% | 97% | 2% | 1% | +5.9 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 98% | 2% | 0% | +2.5 | +0.9 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 5,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +3.2 | -0.2 | -17.9 | +14.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -19.0 | -5.3 | -15.0 | +39.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Draw | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | +1.7 | +1.6 | -2.9 | -0.4 |