Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/29 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+74.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +40.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -14.1 | +22.8 | -6.7 | -2.1 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 16% | 40% | 20% | 24% | -13.7 | +40.2 | -10.9 | -15.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 78% | 9% | 8% | -3.9 | +20.9 | -9.0 | -8.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 2% | 93% | 3% | 2% | -0.5 | +6.2 | -5.5 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 96% | 2% | 2% | +1.0 | -1.1 | -5.3 | +5.4 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 95% | 1% | 3% | -9.5 | -4.0 | +24.0 | -10.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 94% | 4% | 1% | +22.4 | -1.6 | -12.2 | -8.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 95% | 2% | 2% | -1.5 | +1.0 | +5.4 | -4.8 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 97% | 1% | 0% | +7.4 | -5.4 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 3% | 95% | 2% | 1% | -7.9 | +1.2 | +7.8 | -1.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 97% | 2% | 0% | +6.9 | -1.4 | -3.8 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 2% | 0% | +2.0 | +1.3 | -1.2 | -2.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 5,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +3.3 | -0.2 | -18.1 | +15.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -18.4 | -4.9 | -14.9 | +38.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | +1.5 | +1.2 | -2.7 | -0.1 |