Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/30 Game 1
Kurosawa Saki finished 1st (+52.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun, which moved Kurosawa Saki's expected points by +42.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Murakami Jun tsumo 3,000 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +6.6 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 23% | 23% | 23% | -11.8 | -4.5 | -7.9 | +24.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 21% | 19% | 18% | 42% | -5.7 | +6.7 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 23% | 18% | 42% | +3.5 | -18.7 | +16.6 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 20% | 12% | 28% | 41% | +2.9 | -2.7 | +0.9 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 11% | 29% | 39% | -9.3 | -5.3 | +23.3 | -8.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 14% | 9% | 48% | 29% | -0.6 | -1.6 | +4.5 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,600 from Murakami Jun | 15% | 7% | 51% | 27% | -10.8 | -0.6 | -2.1 | +13.5 |
| East 4 | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 8% | 7% | 48% | 37% | +22.1 | -18.0 | +0.5 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Murakami Jun tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 3% | 48% | 31% | +35.8 | -6.4 | -16.3 | -13.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 50% | 1% | 29% | 20% | -11.9 | +15.1 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,100 | 41% | 5% | 31% | 23% | -0.8 | +5.4 | -0.4 | -4.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 40% | 6% | 32% | 22% | -4.3 | +5.7 | -2.4 | +1.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 37% | 9% | 31% | 23% | -33.6 | -6.6 | -2.2 | +42.3 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 2% | 22% | 69% | -1.8 | -3.7 | -8.2 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 1% | 4% | 92% | -25.6 | +47.4 | -17.8 | -4.0 |