Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
11/30 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+52.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +41.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami tsumo 3,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +7.3 | -1.7 | -4.5 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 24% | 22% | 24% | -12.2 | -7.6 | -7.1 | +26.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 19% | 18% | 45% | -1.0 | +6.4 | -1.1 | -4.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 22% | 18% | 41% | -1.8 | -17.2 | +15.4 | +3.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 11% | 26% | 45% | +3.2 | -1.8 | +3.2 | -4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 12% | 28% | 40% | -7.1 | -5.2 | +21.8 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 9% | 47% | 29% | -1.0 | -2.5 | +4.1 | -0.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Jun Murakami | 14% | 8% | 49% | 28% | -11.3 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +13.0 |
| East 4 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 9% | 6% | 49% | 37% | +19.7 | -18.4 | +1.7 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Jun Murakami tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 2% | 50% | 33% | +38.5 | -5.0 | -18.5 | -15.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 2% | 27% | 20% | -11.9 | +14.5 | -0.3 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,100 | 41% | 5% | 32% | 22% | -0.3 | +4.7 | -0.6 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 6% | 32% | 20% | -3.9 | +5.6 | -3.2 | +1.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 38% | 9% | 30% | 22% | -34.3 | -6.3 | -0.7 | +41.3 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 8% | 3% | 23% | 67% | -2.7 | -4.4 | -8.9 | +16.0 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 94% | -24.8 | +48.1 | -18.2 | -5.1 |