Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Kondo Seiichi finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kondo Seiichi's expected points by +36.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -6.4 | -2.1 | +3.2 | +5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 21% | 24% | 27% | 28% | -19.8 | -4.2 | -2.6 | +26.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 9% | 17% | 22% | 52% | +2.5 | -7.4 | +2.4 | +2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 10% | 14% | 22% | 54% | -20.9 | +25.6 | -3.4 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 4% | 27% | 18% | 51% | -2.2 | -7.5 | -5.1 | +14.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 3% | 18% | 12% | 67% | -1.9 | +0.8 | +22.8 | -21.7 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 3% | 23% | 31% | 43% | -4.6 | +9.2 | +2.3 | -6.9 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 30% | 34% | 35% | +6.8 | -17.3 | +5.5 | +5.0 |
| South 3 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 15% | 41% | 43% | -4.3 | -11.9 | +36.7 | -20.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 1% | 88% | 10% | +30.4 | -33.7 | +0.2 | +3.0 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 91% | 9% | -4.5 | -2.2 | -4.5 | +11.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,900 from Kondo Seiichi | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | -0.5 | -0.2 | -7.9 | +8.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 26% | +10.3 | -3.5 | +9.1 | -15.9 |