Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 3: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 27% | 24% | -4.7 | -2.0 | -0.2 | +6.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 22% | 23% | 27% | 29% | -21.4 | -4.5 | +0.4 | +25.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 16% | 24% | 51% | +2.7 | -7.2 | +0.5 | +4.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 10% | 13% | 23% | 54% | -19.5 | +25.3 | -4.8 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 4% | 27% | 17% | 53% | -2.6 | -6.7 | -5.2 | +14.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 2% | 17% | 12% | 68% | -2.9 | +1.9 | +25.4 | -24.4 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 3% | 23% | 32% | 41% | -4.0 | +7.4 | +1.4 | -4.8 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 28% | 34% | 37% | +7.1 | -17.6 | +5.8 | +4.8 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 14% | 43% | 42% | -4.8 | -10.7 | +35.4 | -19.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 1% | 89% | 10% | +30.7 | -33.9 | +0.9 | +2.4 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 92% | 8% | -4.4 | -2.2 | -5.0 | +11.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,900 from Seiichi Kondo | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | -0.4 | +0.3 | -6.4 | +6.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 77% | 23% | +10.0 | -3.9 | +7.7 | -13.8 |