Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+56.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +5.4 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 22% | 24% | 24% | -15.2 | +27.5 | -7.6 | -4.7 |
| East 2 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 1,500 | 18% | 43% | 18% | 20% | +8.9 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -0.2 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 23% | 40% | 16% | 20% | -5.6 | +10.0 | -0.2 | -4.2 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 50% | 14% | 17% | -8.9 | -12.9 | -11.9 | +33.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 14% | 36% | 9% | 41% | -3.3 | +1.0 | +3.9 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 36% | 12% | 41% | -13.9 | -8.9 | -4.3 | +27.1 |
| South 2 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 19% | 6% | 72% | +3.8 | -3.7 | -4.4 | +4.2 |
| South 3 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 12% | 5% | 81% | +39.3 | -14.5 | -20.7 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 16% | 6% | 0% | 78% | -2.2 | -6.0 | -0.1 | +8.4 |