Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+56.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +4.4 | -1.1 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 24% | -13.0 | +26.9 | -7.3 | -6.5 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 1,500 | 19% | 42% | 20% | 19% | +8.4 | -5.8 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 24% | 39% | 18% | 19% | -6.7 | +12.4 | -4.7 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 51% | 13% | 18% | -9.3 | -14.0 | -10.4 | +33.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 14% | 34% | 9% | 43% | -2.4 | +2.5 | +3.7 | -3.8 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 38% | 11% | 39% | -14.0 | -9.6 | -5.3 | +28.9 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 1,500 | 2% | 19% | 5% | 74% | +4.0 | -4.2 | -3.6 | +3.8 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 12% | 5% | 81% | +39.2 | -15.1 | -20.3 | -3.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 6% | 0% | 80% | -1.7 | -5.3 | -0.3 | +7.3 |