Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/7 Game 2
Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 4 honba: Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -15.5 | -4.5 | +23.8 | -3.8 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato ron 7,700 from Murakami Jun | 15% | 20% | 43% | 22% | -17.5 | +22.5 | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 7% | 35% | 39% | 19% | -0.5 | -1.8 | -1.1 | +3.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 7% | 33% | 39% | 21% | -2.7 | +1.9 | +4.9 | -4.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 6% | 33% | 43% | 18% | +0.2 | +18.2 | -4.4 | -13.9 |
| East 4 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 51% | 35% | 10% | -3.8 | +22.1 | -7.6 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Murakami Jun ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 3% | 77% | 17% | 3% | +27.4 | +1.4 | -27.4 | -1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 82% | 7% | 3% | -14.4 | -1.7 | -5.1 | +21.2 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 83% | 7% | 8% | -2.1 | +0.3 | -5.0 | +6.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 87% | 5% | 7% | -7.9 | -3.4 | +19.3 | -8.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 84% | 8% | 7% | -5.8 | -7.0 | +18.2 | -5.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 73% | 20% | 7% | -5.6 | -27.0 | +41.4 | -8.8 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 0% | 19% | 78% | 3% | -14.7 | +29.8 | -18.3 | +3.2 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Murakami Jun | 0% | 63% | 36% | 1% | -2.4 | +17.4 | -13.3 | -1.8 |