Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/7 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 4 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +28.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -13.7 | -5.9 | +24.3 | -4.7 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 7,700 from Jun Murakami | 15% | 20% | 42% | 22% | -20.2 | +22.8 | -2.2 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 7% | 35% | 38% | 20% | +3.2 | -2.5 | -1.0 | +0.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 32% | 39% | 20% | -4.5 | +2.6 | +3.5 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 6% | 34% | 41% | 19% | -1.3 | +18.3 | -3.3 | -13.7 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 51% | 34% | 11% | -1.9 | +20.4 | -6.7 | -11.8 |
| South 1 | Jun Murakami ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 3% | 75% | 19% | 3% | +26.6 | +3.3 | -27.2 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 83% | 7% | 3% | -13.0 | -1.5 | -7.8 | +22.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 84% | 5% | 8% | -4.4 | -0.5 | -2.8 | +7.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 86% | 5% | 7% | -7.9 | -3.9 | +21.3 | -9.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 82% | 10% | 7% | -5.0 | -5.7 | +17.2 | -6.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 74% | 20% | 6% | -4.9 | -26.9 | +39.6 | -7.8 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 0% | 21% | 77% | 2% | -15.1 | +28.1 | -17.3 | +4.3 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Jun Murakami | 0% | 61% | 37% | 2% | -2.6 | +18.4 | -13.3 | -2.5 |