Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/10 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+61.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Ishibashi Nobuhiro 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Ishibashi Nobuhiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 7,700 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | +17.9 | -1.3 | -19.9 | +3.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 22% | 14% | 26% | -10.0 | -5.1 | -5.3 | +20.4 |
| East 2 | Kurosawa Saki ron 5,200 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 29% | 19% | 12% | 41% | +15.3 | -2.8 | -0.6 | -11.9 |
| East 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,000 from Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 43% | 16% | 11% | 30% | +10.6 | +1.3 | -5.1 | -6.8 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 54% | 15% | 7% | 23% | -9.4 | +39.0 | -7.9 | -21.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 40% | 47% | 4% | 9% | +6.5 | -5.2 | +0.3 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 47% | 40% | 5% | 8% | +1.1 | +5.2 | -3.0 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 45% | 45% | 3% | 7% | +3.4 | +0.7 | -6.3 | +2.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Ishibashi Nobuhiro ron 1,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 48% | 42% | 2% | 7% | -6.6 | +2.2 | -2.5 | +6.9 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 47% | 2% | 9% | +1.9 | -9.2 | +14.0 | -6.8 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 50% | 38% | 4% | 8% | -12.3 | +26.4 | -11.5 | -2.6 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 18% | 78% | 0% | 3% | -6.9 | +10.7 | -2.9 | -0.9 |