Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/10 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+61.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +36.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +17.4 | +3.6 | -20.5 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 23% | -12.8 | -8.1 | -2.3 | +23.2 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 26% | 19% | 14% | 41% | +16.3 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -13.0 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 42% | 16% | 12% | 31% | +9.9 | +2.2 | -6.9 | -5.2 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 17% | 7% | 24% | -7.6 | +36.2 | -7.0 | -21.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 45% | 5% | 10% | +5.4 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 41% | 4% | 10% | +3.5 | +2.7 | -1.8 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% | +1.6 | +2.7 | -4.3 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 49% | 44% | 2% | 6% | -7.2 | +1.8 | -2.7 | +8.1 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 48% | 2% | 9% | +2.5 | -9.7 | +12.2 | -5.1 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 49% | 38% | 5% | 8% | -12.1 | +26.6 | -12.0 | -2.4 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 18% | 79% | 0% | 4% | -6.6 | +10.4 | -2.0 | -1.8 |