Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/14 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+51.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Masato Hagiwara | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -1.8 | +0.5 | 0.0 | +1.4 |
| East 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | +0.7 | -7.6 | -2.5 | +9.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 20% | 22% | 33% | -2.9 | -2.0 | +7.7 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 20% | 27% | 32% | +6.8 | -3.3 | -5.8 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 18% | 22% | 33% | -9.1 | +33.0 | -7.8 | -16.1 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 42% | 17% | 21% | -2.2 | -7.8 | +7.9 | +2.0 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 19% | 35% | 23% | 23% | -1.8 | -5.1 | +35.2 | -28.2 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 13% | 24% | 54% | 9% | +0.9 | -17.0 | +9.9 | +6.1 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 7% | 76% | 9% | +7.4 | -5.2 | -6.6 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 8% | 62% | 13% | -15.6 | +19.8 | +15.6 | -19.8 |