Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/18 Game 1
Taro Suzuki finished 1st (+81.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Taro Suzuki tsumo 16,000, which moved Taro Suzuki's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -22.5 | -11.9 | +42.2 | -7.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 14% | 59% | 17% | -1.9 | +8.8 | -3.1 | -3.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 21% | 55% | 15% | -2.9 | -13.3 | +22.1 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 8% | 79% | 8% | -2.0 | +1.0 | -6.7 | +7.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 9% | 75% | 11% | -1.3 | -3.1 | -2.3 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,500 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 8% | 72% | 15% | -1.7 | +0.2 | -4.5 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 10% | 66% | 18% | -7.8 | +36.4 | -7.3 | -21.4 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,700 | 4% | 31% | 57% | 9% | -8.6 | -0.6 | +2.9 | +6.4 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 28% | 62% | 10% | -1.7 | -15.6 | +20.6 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 4% | 90% | 5% | +5.1 | +1.5 | +17.1 | -23.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +2.4 | +0.4 | +4.3 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.8 | -0.4 | +2.6 | -1.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.6 | +8.9 | -4.4 | -5.1 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +13.5 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -11.0 |