Game · 2018-19 Regular Season
12/20 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +49.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -7.6 | -7.0 | -2.0 | +16.6 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 19% | 21% | 23% | 37% | -30.2 | +34.0 | -1.7 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 44% | 19% | 32% | -4.1 | -18.0 | -9.6 | +31.7 |
| East 3 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 21% | 11% | 64% | -7.4 | -11.5 | +29.2 | -10.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 16% | 29% | 52% | -2.4 | -2.2 | -4.7 | +9.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 2% | 13% | 23% | 62% | +10.7 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 14% | 22% | 61% | +29.5 | -12.2 | -9.2 | -8.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 11% | 21% | 54% | -17.1 | +30.7 | -6.1 | -7.5 |
| South 2 | Yudai Maehara ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 6% | 30% | 19% | 45% | -9.9 | -2.6 | +7.0 | +5.5 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 24% | 20% | 53% | +10.7 | -1.7 | -14.0 | +5.0 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 19% | 9% | 64% | -14.5 | +49.3 | -4.8 | -30.0 |