Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2021-22 Finals

4/19 Game 2

Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Date Arisa, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +38.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Tojyo Rio● Date Arisa● Ooi Takaharu● Hori Shingo0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Tojyo● Date● Ooi● Hori
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
East 1Tojyo Rio ron 2,900 from Hori Shingo24%26%25%25%+8.8+1.6-2.4-8.1
East 1, 1 honbaDraw31%26%22%21%+3.5-0.8+0.3-3.1
East 1, 2 honbaHori Shingo ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio34%25%23%19%-26.7-0.7-1.1+28.5
East 2Draw15%24%22%39%+7.1-3.5-1.3-2.3
East 3, 1 honbaDraw19%21%22%37%+2.5-3.2+2.9-2.3
East 3, 2 honbaDate Arisa ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu21%19%24%36%-3.3+30.9-27.5-0.1
East 4Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo16%44%8%33%+0.4+32.5+3.2-36.1
South 1Draw10%80%5%5%+5.6-1.7-2.4-1.5
South 1, 1 honbaTojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Date Arisa12%77%5%6%+38.8-35.9-0.7-2.1
South 1, 2 honbaOoi Takaharu tsumo 8,00055%32%6%7%-9.1-3.5+20.6-8.1
South 2Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,10047%32%16%5%+3.5-3.7+2.9-2.7
South 3Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu53%26%16%5%+6.9+2.4-34.3+25.0
South 4Tojyo Rio ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu66%22%1%12%+16.4-4.5-5.0-6.9

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)