Game · 2021-22 Final Series
4/19 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Arisa Date, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +38.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Shingo Hori | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +6.8 | -0.7 | +0.7 | -6.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 24% | 24% | 22% | +1.5 | +4.3 | -2.1 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 31% | 26% | 24% | 19% | -23.8 | -2.1 | -0.7 | +26.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 25% | 22% | 38% | +5.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 22% | 20% | 39% | +1.3 | -2.7 | +7.6 | -6.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 19% | 21% | 26% | 34% | +1.1 | +28.8 | -31.0 | +1.1 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 18% | 43% | 7% | 32% | -0.1 | +32.4 | +3.9 | -36.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 80% | 5% | 5% | +5.7 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 12% | 76% | 6% | 6% | +38.3 | -34.6 | -2.5 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 33% | 5% | 6% | -11.4 | -3.8 | +22.8 | -7.6 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 45% | 32% | 17% | 6% | +5.9 | -4.1 | +0.8 | -2.6 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 54% | 25% | 15% | 6% | +7.0 | +2.3 | -32.9 | +23.7 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 67% | 21% | 1% | 11% | +15.5 | -4.2 | -5.4 | -5.8 |