Game · 2021-22 Finals
4/19 Game 2
Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+54.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Date Arisa, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +38.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tojyo Rio ron 2,900 from Hori Shingo | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +8.8 | +1.6 | -2.4 | -8.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 31% | 26% | 22% | 21% | +3.5 | -0.8 | +0.3 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 34% | 25% | 23% | 19% | -26.7 | -0.7 | -1.1 | +28.5 |
| East 2 | Draw | 15% | 24% | 22% | 39% | +7.1 | -3.5 | -1.3 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 19% | 21% | 22% | 37% | +2.5 | -3.2 | +2.9 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 21% | 19% | 24% | 36% | -3.3 | +30.9 | -27.5 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 16% | 44% | 8% | 33% | +0.4 | +32.5 | +3.2 | -36.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 10% | 80% | 5% | 5% | +5.6 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 12% | 77% | 5% | 6% | +38.8 | -35.9 | -0.7 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 55% | 32% | 6% | 7% | -9.1 | -3.5 | +20.6 | -8.1 |
| South 2 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 47% | 32% | 16% | 5% | +3.5 | -3.7 | +2.9 | -2.7 |
| South 3 | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 53% | 26% | 16% | 5% | +6.9 | +2.4 | -34.3 | +25.0 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 66% | 22% | 1% | 12% | +16.4 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -6.9 |