Game · 2021-22 Finals
4/21 Game 1
Uchikawa Kotaro finished 1st (+65.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000, which moved Uchikawa Kotaro's expected points by +32.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -5.2 | +6.6 | +1.1 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 29% | 27% | 23% | +32.8 | -15.8 | -10.5 | -6.4 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,200 from Uotani Yuumi | 48% | 16% | 17% | 19% | +3.4 | +12.8 | -14.2 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 1,500 | 53% | 23% | 9% | 16% | +7.5 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 4,800 from Uotani Yuumi | 61% | 20% | 8% | 12% | +11.8 | -1.0 | -11.8 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 74% | 14% | 3% | 9% | -8.8 | +34.8 | +3.2 | -29.2 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Uotani Yuumi | 56% | 39% | 2% | 2% | +4.3 | -5.8 | -13.8 | +15.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 65% | 31% | 2% | 2% | -4.4 | +3.2 | +2.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 57% | 38% | 2% | 3% | +13.6 | -8.9 | -6.2 | +1.4 |
| South 4 | Draw | 82% | 16% | 0% | 2% | +4.4 | -6.6 | +1.2 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 90% | 9% | 0% | 2% | +4.3 | +6.7 | +17.8 | -28.8 |