Game · 2021-22 Final Series
4/22 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +28.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,800 from Kazunori Takizawa | 23% | 25% | 27% | 26% | +16.8 | -0.8 | -15.5 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 25% | 15% | 25% | -3.0 | -2.0 | +5.8 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Seiichi Kondo | 33% | 24% | 19% | 24% | -0.9 | +16.7 | -1.4 | -14.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 32% | 35% | 18% | 16% | +1.4 | -2.9 | -10.1 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 31% | 14% | 22% | -0.7 | +0.1 | -7.5 | +8.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 6,000 | 32% | 32% | 9% | 28% | -7.3 | -7.0 | -5.1 | +19.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 25% | 26% | 7% | 42% | +28.3 | -26.9 | +1.0 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Kazunori Takizawa | 49% | 9% | 6% | 36% | -0.6 | +12.9 | -12.4 | +0.1 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo ron 2,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 50% | 12% | 3% | 34% | +2.7 | -5.0 | -5.5 | +7.8 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,000 | 53% | 5% | 1% | 41% | -2.6 | -1.4 | +4.3 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Aiko Hinata | 50% | 6% | 3% | 42% | -0.1 | +2.4 | -5.6 | +3.4 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 5% | 0% | 46% | +6.3 | +1.7 | -2.7 | -5.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 6% | 0% | 33% | +19.0 | -4.5 | +0.2 | -14.8 |